High-flying Serie A leaders Inter prevailed with a slender lead in Milan, and have one foot firmly planted in the quarter-finals. Find in-depth analysis of Wednesday’s meeting in the Spanish capital, along with Atletico Madrid vs Inter Milan tips and predictions.
A constant theme in a hugely impressive season for last year’s finalists Inter, they managed to shutout Atletico Madrid and limit them to a grand total of zero shots on target in the first leg.
Will Simone Inzaghi’s defensive juggernauts be able to hold out for another memorable night on the continent? Lucky Block analyses Wednesday’s fascinating second leg.
Atletico Madrid vs Inter Milan Preview – Champions League Round of 16
This was never going to be a goal-laden fixture.
Two sides notoriously difficult to break down meet in the second leg of the Champions League last-16, and the tie is still firmly poised.
Atletico Madrid will have to attempt to overturn a one-goal deficit after Mark Arnautovic’s late winner handed Inter their eighth successive victory in all competitions; a run that has since stretched to 12.
Diego Simeone’s side were typically barbarous in managing to limit their opponents to just a single goal, but their own chance creation – or lack thereof – is cause of concern.
Inter Milan have scored the most goals whilst simultaneously conceding the least in Europe’s top five leagues. The Nerazzurri have taken everything that made last season’s overachieving runners-up so successful, and elevated it to new lofty heights.
Atletico Madrid vs Inter Milan Tips and Predictions
- Under 2.5 Goals @ 19/25
- Over 5.5 Bookings @ 9/10
Under 2.5 Goals
Inter Milan have conceded just 13 goals in 28 matches domestically, and only five in seven in the Champions League.
An abundance of depth in defence and a near-impeccable record this season has transformed Inter into one of the toughest teams to beat in Europe.
The fact they managed to stop Atletico Madrid from scoring in the first leg – a side who finished as the second-highest scorers in this season’s group stage – is testament to that.
That isn’t to say Inter aren’t a double-edged sword, in fact quite the opposite. However, they will know not to take too many risks against La Liga’s best side on home soil; for reference, Atleti are unbeaten in Madrid this season.
With the lead, albeit slender, expect Inter to lean into their defensive acumen and bide their time for clear cut chances in this second leg decider.
Over 5.5 Bookings
Any tie involving Atletico Madrid sees the odds for bookings slashed, but it feels like a worthwhile selection.
The Spaniards were handed four cards in the first leg, taking their total up to 19 bookings across this campaign – the third-most among teams left in the competition.
Inter are also averaging 10 fouls per-90 in the Champions League, and their two cards last time out brought the total to six in the first leg, which happens to be our prediction for Wednesday.
Add to that appointed referee Szymon Marciniak averaging 6.33 yellow cards and just over 23 fouls per-game in the Champions League this season, and this mark looks attainable in a high-stakes second leg.
Atletico Madrid Team News
Cesar Azpilicueta, Vitolo, Thomas Lemar and Marcos Paulo will all sit out once more, but added concerns over the fitness of Jose Gimenez, Pablo Barrios and talisman Antoine Griezmann have scuppered Simeone’s preparations.
Griezmann is expected to accelerate his recovery and be fit enough for Wednesday, but it may come too soon for Gimenez.
Atletico Madrid Predicted Starting Line-Up: Oblak; Witsel, Savic, Hermoso; Llorente, De Paul, Koke, Saul, Lino; Griezmann, Morata.
Inter Milan Team News
Mark Arnautovic was the first leg saviour despite spurning several chances before rippling the net. The Austrian will miss the second leg however, after picking up a hamstring injury.
Simone Inzaghi will have a fully fit starting 11 at his disposal. Attacking full-backs Benjamin Pavard and Matteo Darmain will likely provide the width in a typically narrow 3-5-2 formation, with Marcus Thuram providing the support for captain and top scorer Lautaro Martinez.
Inter Milan Predicted Line-Up :Sommer; Pavard, Acerbi, Bastoni; Darmian, Barella, Calhanoglu, Mkhitaryan, Dimarco; Martinez, Thuram.
Atletico Madrid vs Inter Milan Odds
Below are the latest match odds, but you can find full Atletico Madrid vs Inter Milan betting markets on Lucky Block.
- Atletico Madrid – 19/10
- Draw – 9/4
- Inter Milan – 147/100
