The end-of-season schedule comes thick and fast with games sandwiched across three days in midweek. Using referee and player stats to inform our selections, Lucky Block takes an in-depth look at Premier League yellow card tips for gameweek 31.
Premier League Yellow Card Tips Gameweek 31
- Manchester City vs Aston Villa – Over 4.5 Cards @ 28/25
- Arsenal vs Luton – Issa Kabore to be Carded @ 3/2
- Combined Double Odds: 43/10
Manchester City vs Aston Villa
Wednesday 3rd April – Kick Off 20:15 GMT
Key Stats
- Referee: Darren England (21.22 fouls per-game in 18 appearances)
- England averages 3.61 yellow cards per-90
- Aston Villa have the third-most yellow cards in the Premier League
- Villa also average 10.5 fouls per-game (11th most)
The champions are inevitably strong favourites in the latest Manchester City vs Aston Villa odds, but they need not reminding just how difficult their previous head-to-head was.
Unai Emery’s men are one of just three teams to inflict defeat on City this term, limiting them to just two shots overall – the lowest ever from a Pep Guardiola team – whilst peppering them with 22 of their own.
December’s meeting suggests this could be much closer than bookmakers are predicting, and Aston Villa will likely lean into the physicality of their game to disrupt a City side who are typically dominant at home.
As the key stats highlight, they are not ones to shy away from the referee’s book, yielding the third-highest tally in the top-flight.
It would come as little surprise to see this number bolstered, and we can also expect City to fall under threat of a caution given Aston Villa are particularly threatening on the counter-attack, ranking near the summit for that metric.
Over 4.5 cards appears an attainable number given what’s at stake for both sides in terms of title run-ins and Champions League qualification, and at odds-against it could be a worthwhile selection.
Arsenal vs Luton
Wednesday 3rd April, Kick Off 19:30 GMT
Key Stats
- Referee: Craig Pawson (23.9 fouls per-game in 21 appearances)
- Pawson averages 3.76 yellow cards per-90
- Luton average 11.2 fouls per-game (eighth-most)
- Issa Kabore concedes 1.3 fouls per-90
- Arsenal average 60.3% possession
A Luton team decimated by injuries face the tallest of orders on Wednesday evening, as they travel to face an Arsenal side who have lost just once on home soil all season.
The Hatters – despite some spirited performances – have also picked up just 10 points on the road which suggests this midweek clash could prove a long evening for Rob Edwards’s side.
While bettors can expect Luton to be the side accumulating the majority of the bookings, there is little value in that given Arsenal should find victory here.
Instead, honing in on their likeliest offender is Lucky Block‘s preference, and Issa Kabore sticks out given his discipline record this season.
Not only does he concede the second-most fouls per-game for his team, he has also picked up seven yellow cards in the process.
Arsenal are a team who prefer to control the game through possession, averaging just over 60%, and this should frustrate the visitors who could be forced to break their rhythm. This puts Kabore most at risk for another booking given his position.
